We Called It 'The Great Confluence' in March. Here's What Actually Happened.
In March 2026 we predicted pent-up demand would burst when rates behaved. Here's how the San Diego market actually played out, and what we learned.
Back in March, we shared a big-picture outlook on the San Diego market. We called it "The Great Confluence."
Here's the idea in a nutshell, then an honest look at how 2026 actually played out, because a forecast is only useful if you're willing to check it.
What we said in March
For about three years, the market had been full of stagnant energy. People sat on the sidelines, waiting, watching, holding their breath.
Our view: that pent-up demand doesn't disappear. It builds.
When that stored-up energy met mortgage rates that were finally starting to behave, we expected the shift wouldn't be gradual. We described it like a dam:
- The leak: the first signs of movement, with buyers starting to test the waters
- The burst: once the floodgates opened, competition would be fierce and the landscape would change overnight
Our advice was simple: be positioned before the confluence hits. By the time it feels perfect to everyone else, the opportunity has passed.
What actually happened
The leak happened. The full burst didn't, at least not the way we pictured it.
By summer and fall, the San Diego market looked like this:
- Prices held steady instead of spiking. Zillow showed county values essentially flat year over year.
- Buyers gained leverage. Redfin found 62.3% of sales in its three-month analysis ending May 2026 included a seller concession, and its July 2026 report showed sellers outnumbering buyers by about 30.3%.
- The market got picky, not frantic. Homes that were priced and prepped right still got multiple offers the first weekend. Overpriced homes sat, then cut their price.
- Payment, not price, became the real story. Rates, insurance premiums and the FAIR Plan kept monthly costs high and held many buyers back.
So instead of a dam bursting, 2026 looked more like water finding its level: demand came back selectively, toward the right homes at the right prices.
What we got right
- Demand didn't disappear. Well-priced homes kept selling fast, even in a slower market.
- Waiting for "perfect" didn't pay. Buyers who waited for a headline crash missed months of negotiating leverage. Sellers who waited for 2022 prices are, in many cases, still waiting.
- Being positioned mattered. Buyers with financing ready could take advantage of concessions and buydowns when they appeared.
What we'd adjust
- The shift was more gradual than sudden. Affordability, meaning the full monthly payment, kept a lid on the frenzy we expected.
- The opportunity showed up in negotiations, not competition. For many buyers, 2026 was a year to win terms, not to fight bidding wars.
The lesson for 2027
Forecasts are useful for preparing, not predicting. The advice from March still holds, even though the market took a different path:
- Get positioned before you need to be. Financing, budget and a plan.
- Watch the street level, not the headlines.
- Make decisions based on your numbers and your life, not on a story about where the market is "about to" go.
We'll keep sharing what we see, and we'll keep checking our own calls.
Want to know how 2026 played out in your neighborhood? Book a consult.
Related reading: San Diego Home Prices Haven't Crashed. Here's Where the Correction Is Hiding. · Summer 2026 Recap: The Market Isn't Dead. It's Picky.
This content is for general educational purposes only. Market data is based on the cited sources and dates and may change.