America Is in a Buyer's Market. So Why Are a Third of San Diego Homes Selling Above Asking?
Redfin data shows San Diego homes selling faster and more often above list than the U.S. overall. Where competition is hottest, and why pending sales could change the story.
If you only read national housing headlines, you'd think sellers everywhere are in trouble.
Redfin called August the strongest buyer's market in its records going back to 2013. By its count, there were 63% more sellers than buyers nationwide in its latest seasonal analysis, the largest gap on record.
Now look at San Diego County, where more than one in three homes sold above list price in August.
Same country, same mortgage rates, very different market.
San Diego vs. the U.S.
Here's how the two compared in Redfin's August 2026 data:
| San Diego County | United States | |
|---|---|---|
| Median sale price | $961,781 (up 5.7%) | $398,596 (up about 2%) |
| Median days on market | 28 | 50 |
| Months of supply | 3.0 | About 4 |
| Active listings, year over year | Down 5.6% | Up 2.7% |
| Pending sales, year over year | Down 13% | Down 1.3% |
San Diego's homes sold 22 days faster than the national median. Its inventory shrank while the country's grew. Redfin also reported that the typical home here sold for 99.2% of its asking price, and that 35.4% sold above list, up 5.9 percentage points from a year earlier.
Where the competition is
San Diego's market isn't one market. Redfin's price-tier data for May through July shows where the action was:
| Tier | Median price | Days on market | Sold above list |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top 5% | $3,775,979 | 32 | 22.7% |
| 65th–95th percentile | $1,488,869 | 24 | 35.3% |
| 35th–65th percentile | $909,244 | 24 | 41.3% |
| 5th–35th percentile | $648,187 | 30 | 38.8% |
| Bottom 5% | $384,556 | 46 | 28.9% |
So the fight is roughly between $650,000 and $1.5 million. A buyer at $900,000 and a buyer at $3.7 million are shopping in very different conditions.
Location matters too. In Redfin's June–August city data:
- La Presa: 54.3% of homes sold above list
- Santee: 52.1% sold above list, with 1.7 months of supply
- La Mesa: 48% sold above list
- Coronado: 17.6% sold above list, with 48 days on market
- Imperial Beach: 28% sold above list, with 5.9 months of supply
Those are small samples in some cities, but they make the point. "How's the market?" is the wrong question. "How's the market for this kind of home, on this street, at this price?" is the right one.
Now the warning
San Diego's biggest risk shows up in the pending sales line.
Pending sales tell you what's going to close soon, so they often move before the headlines do. San Diego's 13% August decline was far steeper than the national one. Then it got worse: for the four weeks ending October 25, Redfin reported San Diego's pending sales down 25.3% from a year earlier, the third-largest drop among the 50 most populous metros.
Redfin's own read in August was that fall closings could soften, and that overpricing carries real risk.
What to do with this
If you're selling: Don't assume "San Diego is hot" covers your home. Sellers who price well can still draw strong interest, but the buyer pool looks thinner than it did a year ago.
If you're buying: Don't assume a national buyer's market means you can lowball anything here. A well-priced home in the $650,000 to $1.5 million range may still have competition, while a home that has been sitting may leave real room to negotiate.
If you're just watching: Follow pending sales. They may tell you more about the months ahead than a median price will.
Want to know how your neighborhood and price range compare? Talk to our team.
Sources: Redfin, San Diego County Housing Market Update: August 2026 (county data not seasonally adjusted; city figures cover June–August and tier figures cover May–July) · Redfin, U.S. Home-Sale Prices Just Fell for the First Time in 3 Years · Redfin, Nearly Half of Homebuyers Get Concessions · Redfin, Holiday Season Deals
Disclaimer: Educational purposes only. The GreenHouse Group Inc. (CA DRE #01859042 | NMLS #366847). We are real estate and mortgage professionals, not CPAs, tax advisors or attorneys. This content is not individualized real estate, financial, tax, legal or lending advice. Market data comes from the cited third-party source and dates, may be revised, and varies by area, price and property type. The GreenHouse Group is not affiliated with Redfin.