U.S. Home Prices Just Fell for the First Time in 3 Years. Did They Fall in San Diego?
Redfin says U.S. home-sale prices fell for the first time in over three years. San Diego's latest data tells a different story, with some big exceptions.
It's the headline a lot of people have been waiting for: U.S. home-sale prices have fallen.
According to Redfin, the median U.S. sale price was $389,601 in the four weeks ending October 25, down 0.1% from a year earlier. That's the first annual decline in more than three years.
So is San Diego next? And is that drop as big a deal as it sounds?
Let's keep that 0.1% in perspective
On a $389,601 home, 0.1% is about $390. That's not a crash.
It may matter more as a signal. Redfin says prices are losing momentum, and the median asking price dipped earlier this month for the first time since March.
Meanwhile, the typical monthly payment rose 10.7% to $2,786 at a 7.32% rate. So, on average, a home that cost about the same as last year got far more expensive to finance.
What about San Diego?
Redfin's most recent San Diego County update covers August, so it can't tell us about late October. Here's what it showed:
- Median sale price: $961,781, up 5.7% from a year earlier
- Price per square foot: $597, up 3%
- Prices since early 2020: up roughly 65%
Redfin's San Diego city page also showed a median of $979,000 over the three months through September, up 3.4%.
So no, San Diego hadn't joined the decline in the latest local numbers we can see. A different source, Compass, showed the median for detached homes up 4.6% in July.
But "San Diego" isn't one number
Under that county figure, several places were already down. In Redfin's June–August city data:
| City | Median price | Change from a year earlier |
|---|---|---|
| Casa de Oro-Mount Helix | $1,109,266 | Down 7.6% |
| Vista | $859,431 | Down 6.1% |
| Escondido | $791,976 | Down 3.1% |
| Poway | $1,229,187 | Down 2.6% |
| Santee | $786,979 | Down 1.9% |
| Carlsbad | $1,583,952 | Up 3.6% |
| San Diego | $999,339 | Up 5.2% |
| Coronado | $2,888,089 | Up 28.4% |
Don't read too much into any single line. Small numbers of sales can swing a median, especially in places like Coronado, where a few expensive homes can move it sharply. A falling median can also just mean a different mix of homes sold.
Price tiers show a split too. From May through July, the county's bottom 5% of homes fell 2.1%, while the top 5% rose 2.5%.
California isn't moving together either. In the same October report, San Francisco's median rose 15% while San Jose's fell 4.9%.
What could push San Diego prices down?
The number to watch is pending sales. For the four weeks ending October 25, Redfin had San Diego's pending sales down 25.3% from a year earlier, among the steepest drops in the country.
Fewer contracts now can mean weaker closings later. If that continues, prices could feel it.
But supply matters too. San Diego had 3.0 months of supply in August, compared with the 4 to 5 months Redfin considers balanced, and active listings were down. Fewer homes for sale can help cushion prices even as demand falls.
Nobody can promise which force wins.
What to do
If you're waiting for a San Diego crash: One national number doesn't mean it's arrived. Watch your own neighborhood and price range.
If you're selling: Don't price from last spring's comps. Check what's selling now, and watch for softer demand.
If you're buying: Focus on your payment and negotiating room. Those may matter more than a small move in the median.
Want the real numbers for your zip code? Talk to our team. Or track your home's value for free at SoldWithJesse.com.
Sources: Redfin, U.S. Home-Sale Prices Just Fell for the First Time in 3 Years · Redfin, San Diego County Housing Market Update: August 2026 · Redfin, San Diego Housing Market · Redfin, Sellers' Asking Prices Fall · Compass San Diego Housing Market Update, July 2026, as cited in our Market + Money episode
Disclaimer: Educational purposes only. The GreenHouse Group Inc. (CA DRE #01859042 | NMLS #366847). We are real estate and mortgage professionals, not CPAs, tax advisors or attorneys. This content is not individualized real estate, financial, tax, legal or lending advice. Market data comes from the cited third-party sources and dates, covers different areas and periods, may be revised, and varies by property. Nothing here predicts future prices. The GreenHouse Group is not affiliated with Redfin or Compass.