October 2026 Market + Money Update: The Seller Standoff Is Breaking

For most of this year, the market has felt like a staring contest. Sellers waited for buyers to come up. Buyers waited for sellers to come down. Plenty of listings just sat there.

That standoff is finally breaking. And the homes that are actually selling all have one thing in common: somebody got realistic.

Here's what we're seeing on the ground this month, and what it means for your money.

Serious sellers vs. "listeners"

Right now there are two kinds of sellers on the market.

Serious sellers priced their home for today's market, prepped it properly, and are getting offers.

"Listeners" put a number on the house to see what happens. They're testing the water, and the water keeps telling them the same thing. Those listings show up as expired, cancelled and relisted, sometimes more than once.

One example we track: a home that started at $1.8 million and eventually sold for $1.325 million after 172 days on the market. The market didn't punish that home for being bad. It punished it for being priced for a market that no longer exists. Every week it sat, buyers got more suspicious and more confident about negotiating.

Sellers can wait, but so can buyers

A lot of sellers think time is on their side. "We don't have to sell. We'll just wait."

Fair enough. But buyers have also figured out they don't have to buy. With more inventory and stable pricing, they can be patient and picky. When both sides can wait, the one who gets realistic first usually gets the deal done, and often on better terms than if they'd waited another few months.

Every home needs its own pricing strategy

There's no blanket rule like "list 5% under" or "price high and leave room to negotiate." Two homes on the same street can need completely different strategies depending on condition, layout, lot, upgrades and what's competing with them that week.

That's why we start every listing with the pricing strategy before any prep or photos. Get the price wrong and nothing else saves you.

The real issue: it's a payment problem

Home prices are only one piece of affordability. Buyers aren't really shopping by price. They're shopping by monthly payment, and that payment is getting squeezed from several directions:

• Interest rates that are still well above what many buyers locked in years ago
• Rising home insurance premiums
• Higher costs for homeowners pushed onto California's FAIR Plan when traditional insurers pull back

When the monthly number keeps climbing, more buyers say no, even when they like the house.

Seller-paid buydowns: an alternative to a big price cut

If buyers are worried about payment, sometimes the smartest move isn't cutting the price. It's lowering the payment.

A seller-paid rate buydown uses seller credit to reduce the buyer's interest rate, either temporarily or for the life of the loan. For many buyers that improves their monthly payment more than an equivalent price reduction would. For the seller, it can protect the sale price while making the home feel more affordable.

It isn't right for every deal, but it belongs in the conversation before you slash your list price.

The HELOC trap

On the money side, we're seeing more homeowners caught off guard by climbing HELOC payments.

Most HELOCs carry variable rates, and many start with an interest-only draw period. When rates rise, or the loan moves from the draw period into repayment, that payment can jump significantly.

Before you tap your equity, ask yourself:

• Is this a short-term need or a long-term balance? If you'll carry the balance for years, a cash-out refinance with a fixed rate may make more sense.
• What happens to my payment if rates rise or the draw period ends? Get that number in writing.
• Is this a "just in case" line? A HELOC can be a smart safety net. Opening one before you need it, and not using it unless you must, is a very different strategy from using it to fund lifestyle spending.

What this means for you

If you're selling: The market will pay a fair price for a home that's priced and prepped right. It won't pay for hope. Talk strategy before you list, and consider whether a buydown beats a price cut.

If you're buying: You have more leverage than you've had in years. Focus on the payment, not just the price, and ask about seller credits and buydowns.

If you own and you're eyeing your equity: Run the numbers on a HELOC vs. a cash-out refi before you sign anything.

---

Thinking of selling? Attend our free Home Seller Workshop. Ready to buy? Enroll in our San Diego Homebuyer Class. Curious what your home is worth? Track its value for free at SoldWithJesse.com.

Watch the full Market + Money Update on our YouTube channel.