October 2026 San Diego Market Update: Buyers Got Leverage, So Why Does It Feel Broken?
Sales are down, inventory is down and the median price is up. Why San Diego's market data looks contradictory, and why the payment is the real problem.
For our whole careers, buyers have been on the short end of the stick. They had to say yes to everything, take homes as-is and pay well over list price.
Now buyers finally have some leverage back. So why does everyone keep asking us what the hell is going on?
Because the market got friendlier, but the payment didn't.
The numbers
Here are the San Diego County numbers we walked through on this month's Market + Money:
- Pending sales: down 12%
- Closed sales: down 17.1%
- Affordability: down 8.3%
- Inventory: down 10%
- Median price: up 7.1%
If those seem to contradict each other, you're reading them correctly. Some of the data points to a seller's market and some points to a buyer's market.
Why would the median rise when demand is falling?
Look closely at the word median. It's the midpoint of the homes that actually sold, so it depends on who is still buying.
The people who can afford to buy are still buying. If buyers at lower price points are the ones getting squeezed out, the mix of sales shifts, and the median can rise even while overall demand weakens.
Demand fell, but there's no inventory flood
Normally, when demand fades, inventory climbs. That isn't happening.
Buyers are holding back because of the payment. Many owners are holding on to their low rates. The result is an old western standoff, with neither side moving.
Detached and attached are different markets
Supply tells the story:
- Detached homes: about 2.3 months of supply
- Condos and townhomes: about 4 months of supply
Three to six months has long been considered roughly balanced in San Diego. Detached homes are well below that, and even attached homes are only at the low end of it.
Those numbers also hide something else: attached homes are feeling real pressure from rising monthly fees. We cover that in Why Condos Are Getting Hammered.
Affordability is where it all meets
The affordability index for detached homes fell from 40 to 38. The index combines home prices, local incomes and borrowing costs. Prices have been fairly calm lately, so borrowing costs are doing much of the damage.
What it means for you
If you're buying: You may have more room to negotiate than you've had in years. Focus on the full monthly payment, not just the price.
If you're selling: Demand is more selective. Price and presentation still matter, and tight supply doesn't guarantee a sale.
If you own and feel stuck: You have more options than you may think. Start with House Rich, Move Poor.
You don't have to make a move today, but you can still have a plan.
Want to know what this means for your neighborhood? Talk to our team.
Figures are as discussed on our October 2026 Market + Money episode. Watch it on YouTube.
Disclaimer: Educational purposes only. The GreenHouse Group Inc. (CA DRE #01859042 | NMLS #366847). We are real estate and mortgage professionals, not CPAs, tax advisors or attorneys. This content is not individualized real estate, financial, tax, legal or lending advice. Market data can change and varies by area, price range and property type. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results.