Waiting to Break Even From 2022? The Math Most Sellers Miss
If your home's value dropped 10%, you need an 11.1% gain to get back to even, not 10%. Why waiting for the 2022 peak can cost San Diego sellers more than it saves.
A lot of San Diego sellers are waiting for a market that doesn't exist anymore.
They're holding out to "break even" with the 2022 peak, to get back to the number they saw on Zillow at the top of the market before they list.
It sounds reasonable. But there's math nobody mentions, and a few hidden costs to waiting that can make "holding out" the more expensive choice.
The recovery math
Here's the part that surprises people:
If your home's value drops 10%, you don't need a 10% gain to get back to even. You need 11.1%.
Why? Because the gain is calculated from a lower starting point.
| Value | |
|---|---|
| 2022 peak | $1,000,000 |
| After a 10% drop | $900,000 |
| 10% gain from $900,000 | $990,000 (still $10,000 short) |
| Needed to get back to $1,000,000 | +11.1% ($100,000 ÷ $900,000) |
The bigger the drop, the bigger that gap gets. A 20% decline needs a 25% gain to recover.
While you wait, everything else moves too
Holding out for the peak assumes everything else stands still. It doesn't.
- The home you want to buy is also changing in price. If the market recovers, your next home gets more expensive too. You may get your number and still be no better off.
- Interest rates keep shifting. Waiting can mean financing your next home at a different, possibly higher, rate.
- Your life is on hold. The bigger backyard, being closer to family, the downsize, the job move: all of it waits too.
Most sellers are also buyers. What matters isn't the price you sell for. It's the gap between what you sell for and what you buy for.
"Good" is the new "Perfect"
In this market, "good" beats "perfect."
- "Good" gets you moved.
- "Good" gets you into that bigger yard or closer to family.
- "Good" lets you stop putting your life on hold for a number on a screen.
Chasing a ghost price from 2022 can quietly cost you years.
What to do instead
- Find out what your home is worth today. Use real local comps, not an algorithm.
- Calculate your actual equity. Subtract your loan balance and selling costs from today's value.
- Price your next move. What will the home you want cost, and what would the payment be?
- Compare the two scenarios: move now vs. wait 12–24 months. Look at the whole picture, not just your sale price.
For many sellers, the numbers say the move works today. For others, waiting truly makes sense. Either way, you should decide based on your real numbers.
Want a custom equity report? Contact us and ask for "VALUE." We'll show you exactly what your move looks like in today's market. Thinking about selling? Join our free Home Seller Workshop.
Related reading: Thinking About Leaving California? Know Your Walk-Away Number Before You Sell