Pending Home Sales Just Hit a Record Low. San Diego's Drop Is Among the Worst. Good News for Buyers?
U.S. pending home sales hit their lowest level in Redfin's records, and San Diego had one of the steepest drops. What that means for buyers, and what it doesn't.
For the four weeks ending October 25, U.S. pending home sales fell to 276,352, down 15.9% from a year earlier and the lowest level in Redfin's records, which go back to 2021.
San Diego's decline was even sharper: down 25.3%. Only Seattle and Atlanta fell more among the 50 most populous metros.
It's tempting to read that and picture desperate sellers handing out bargains. Hold on. The real story is more interesting, and it's more useful for buyers.
What pending sales tell you
A pending sale is a home under contract that hasn't closed yet. Because closings lag by weeks, pending sales offer an early look at where demand is heading.
So a 25% drop means far fewer San Diego buyers signed contracts this fall than last fall.
Why buyers stepped back
Redfin's explanation is the one we keep coming back to: the payment.
The typical U.S. monthly payment was $2,786 at a 7.32% rate, up 10.7% from a year earlier and the second-highest level in Redfin's records. National sale prices barely changed, but payments jumped anyway.
What it could mean for you
You may be competing with fewer people. Fewer buyers under contract can mean fewer rival offers, especially on homes that have been listed for a while.
You may have more room to negotiate. Redfin says buyers nationally have more negotiating power than they've had in over a decade. In San Diego, 57.1% of August sales still included a seller concession.
You may have a little more time. With less urgency in the market, you may not have to decide from the driveway.
What it doesn't mean
It doesn't mean San Diego homes are cheap. Redfin's latest county data had the median sale price at $961,781 in August, up 5.7% from a year earlier.
It doesn't mean every home is negotiable. In that same August data, 35.4% of county homes sold above list and the median home sold in 28 days. Those numbers came before October's sharper pending decline, so they may soften, but the right home may not wait around.
It doesn't mean a crash is coming. Falling demand alone doesn't force prices down. San Diego's active listings were down 5.6% in August, and fewer owners selling can help hold prices up. Remember the old western standoff: buyers are waiting, and many owners aren't moving.
The buyer's playbook right now
- Start with your monthly number. Know what you can comfortably pay before you look at list prices.
- Target the homes that have been sitting. Days on market and price cuts tell you where sellers may be most flexible.
- Negotiate the whole deal. Price, closing costs, repairs and a rate buydown are all on the table. See How to Ask for a Seller Credit.
- Don't overplay your hand on a great home. A lowball that works on a stale listing can lose a well-priced one.
- Stay ready. Rates may move, and you'd want your financing lined up if they do.
The bottom line
Record-low pending sales don't mean San Diego is on sale. They mean there's less competition for buyers who are prepared. That's still a real advantage.
Want to know how much negotiating room you have on a specific home? Talk to our team, or join our San Diego Homebuyer Class.
Sources: Redfin, U.S. Home-Sale Prices Just Fell for the First Time in 3 Years · Redfin, U.S. Pending Home Sales Sink to a New Low · Redfin, San Diego County Housing Market Update: August 2026 · Redfin, Nearly Half of Homebuyers Get Concessions
Disclaimer: Educational purposes only. The GreenHouse Group Inc. (CA DRE #01859042 | NMLS #366847). We are real estate and mortgage professionals, not CPAs, tax advisors or attorneys. This content is not individualized real estate, financial, tax, legal or lending advice. Market data comes from the cited third-party source and dates, and may change. Metro and county figures cover different areas and periods. Loan approval, rates and terms depend on eligibility. The GreenHouse Group is not affiliated with Redfin.