Redfin's Best Holiday Home Deals List Skipped San Diego. Should You Still Shop in December?
Redfin found seven metros where the best home deals come in November and December. San Diego wasn't one of them. Here's what its timing data means for local buyers.
Every fall, someone tells you the holidays are the secret best time to buy a house. Nobody's out shopping. Sellers are desperate. Santa brings you a discount.
Redfin and Home Economics actually tested the idea. They looked at when discounts in each metro stop improving, and found seven places where the best deals arrive in November or December:
- Early November: Milwaukee, Riverside and Tampa
- Mid-December: Detroit, Fort Lauderdale, Miami and West Palm Beach
San Diego isn't on the list.
What San Diego's calendar looks like
Here's the seasonal pattern Redfin found for our market:
| What you want | When it typically peaks in San Diego |
|---|---|
| Most new listings | Mid-May |
| Most fresh inventory | Mid-July |
| Best deals | Mid-September |
So by Redfin's measure, San Diego's discount season has usually run its course by now. Nationally, Redfin says discounts tend to peak in early fall and then plateau or shrink as winter approaches.
That sounds like bad news if you're shopping in December. It isn't quite that simple.
Why December can still make sense
A seasonal pattern is an average, not a price tag. The analysis tells you when discounts have typically leveled off. It doesn't say a motivated seller on your target street won't negotiate.
You may have less company. Redfin notes that late-year shopping tends to bring less competition and more motivated sellers. And this year, the competition is already thin: San Diego's pending sales were down 25.3% from a year earlier for the four weeks ending October 25.
The people selling now often mean it. Someone listing a home the week before Christmas usually has a reason. That reason can matter more than the calendar.
The trade-offs
Selection shrinks. New listings and fresh inventory peak months earlier. If you need a specific school zone or a rare floor plan, a smaller pool can hurt more than a discount helps.
The payment is still the payment. Redfin's typical U.S. monthly payment hit $2,786 at a 7.32% rate for the four weeks ending October 25, near a record high. A small holiday discount may not change your budget much, while your rate and credits could.
Don't let the season make the decision. Redfin's own economist cautioned against buying just because the calendar says it's a good time. We agree. The right time is when the home and the numbers work for you.
How to shop San Diego over the holidays
- Get your financing reviewed before Thanksgiving. Lenders, title and escrow teams can run on holiday schedules, so build in extra time.
- Search for listings that have been sitting. Long days on market and price drops can be better clues than the date.
- Ask for terms, not just price. A credit toward your rate or closing costs may do more for your monthly budget.
- Ask why the seller is moving. A year-end deadline can be useful to know.
- Be ready to look at a home quickly. With fewer listings, a good one can stand out.
Open to going inland? Riverside is the one California metro on Redfin's holiday list, with its best deals in early November. It's a different market, so compare the commute and full monthly costs too.
The bottom line
San Diego may not be a holiday-deal town by the numbers, but a slow December can still suit a prepared buyer. Just don't confuse quiet with cheap.
Thinking about buying before the end of the year? Talk to our team, or join our San Diego Homebuyer Class.
Sources: Redfin, The Holiday Season Is the Best Time for Homebuyers to Score a Deal in These 7 U.S. Metros (analysis by Redfin and Home Economics) · Redfin, U.S. Home-Sale Prices Just Fell for the First Time in 3 Years
Disclaimer: Educational purposes only. The GreenHouse Group Inc. (CA DRE #01859042 | NMLS #366847). We are real estate and mortgage professionals, not CPAs, tax advisors or attorneys. This content is not individualized real estate, financial, tax, legal or lending advice. Seasonal patterns are historical averages and don't guarantee a discount. Market data comes from the cited third-party source and dates, and may change. Loan approval, rates and terms depend on eligibility. The GreenHouse Group is not affiliated with Redfin.